Analysis abandon monetary easing fantasy market non cattle bear pattern will continue hyuna

Analysis: abandoned monetary easing fantasy market non cattle bear pattern will continue, WeChat public source: Guotai Junan monetary easing to abandon the fantasy, "non cattle bear" market pattern will continue. Configure the Trident, value + boom +PPP. Loose fantasy. Since June, the United Kingdom since the euro, the market is expected to continue to loose domestic monetary easing, lower than expected credit data in July and other central banks in other countries to make some investors still loose monetary illusion. But we think, from the current signs, short-term monetary easing is not possible, the liquidity level or marginal tightening may exist. The core is to reduce speed two "control" and a "necessity": first, the domestic game regulatory policy and asset bubbles from the sidelines has entered a substantive stage in July, the Central Political Bureau meeting the first mention of the "curb asset bubble", but in the past two months, the bond market and the real estate market has intensified but recently the situation has changed significantly, last week the central bank 14 days reverse repo restart and first-tier cities (such as Shanghai) purchase policy to upgrade, has entered the stage of acceleration response of the regulatory inhibition of foam, and the impact on the liquidity level has taken the lead in the interbank market reflect. Second, with the recent appearance of foreign Yellen Eagle position, the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up again, the wolf is coming again, the external environment of domestic monetary policy constraints also speed. The necessity of reducing "is derived from the August domestic high-frequency economic data improved, reducing the short-term economic stabilization stage may be relaxed. Risk appetite is still subject to tighter regulation. 2016 since the second half, we have been entities and financial double leverage as the driving force of the A-share market A important edge. Today, we have seen, strict supervision, deleveraging is a line of three will be in full swing. Last week, the CIRC will continue to force, since August 3rd CIRC start in the history of the most stringent "self rectification storm" since August 23rd, the new financial reports, the CIRC has issued an unprecedented restrictions continue to draft, intends to further tightening of high price products, and for the first time on the market of high insurance products guaranteed interest rate limit. We believe that a series of regulatory policies will continue to inhibit the formation of partial market risk: first, financial regulations and insurance products to tighter regulation, will break the previous for this part of the incremental capital market logic vision; second of the liabilities of financial institutions end product revenue rate control, will reduce the rate of in the end of the asset allocation demand returns, past by increasing risk appetite to win high-yield impulse will be inhibited, this part of the funds will also significantly reduce the risk appetite. From cattle bear, pay close attention to performance. Roadshow exchanges over the past few weeks, some investors still have a good fantasy for the trend of the market. But we believe that the core of the market this year is the core – non cow non bear, that is, the narrow range of the shock market, the current and future rates will continue this trend. Because from the current market microstructure, the situation has not yet undergone substantial concentration of chips, so the short-term fluctuations in the stock price is more of a game factor, it is difficult to achieve the interaction between fundamentals and. In addition, since last year since the crash of the three stock market adjustment, each time in order to quickly.相关的主题文章: