Analysis the Fed is expected to cut again in the long-term interest rate expectations wetnwild

Analysis: the Fed is expected to cut again in the long-term interest rates expected U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes warrants to view the latest market Sina stocks in Beijing on the evening of 20 Reuters analysis, in the United States economic output, production rate and inflation is rising faster slower than in the past decades of circumstances, the Federal Reserve (FED) decision-making officials this week is expected to once again lowered forecast for the future path of interest rates. This will be the Fed’s 15 months of four cut interest rates forecast, the Fed is forced to admit is equal to the estimated over optimistic about the so-called neutral rate, but it also raises the question of the economic constitution in the next few years. However, the Fed still insisted that low interest rates and huge debt positions on the account is still sufficient to sustain economic growth. With a number of Fed officials talk show, some officials will be in the monetary policy meeting this week lowered its forecast of the long-term interest rates, the median estimate may be reduced to 2.75%; June 2015 forecast for 3.75%, and four years ago estimates are 4.25%. Reuters survey, analysts expect the Fed will continue to maintain the end of Wednesday’s meeting overnight interest rate unchanged. Since the Federal Reserve last December to implement the first interest rate hike in nearly 10 years, the policy rate is maintained at about 0.38%. The long-term interest rate expectations in the neutral estimated value decline, is tantamount to the future interest rates rise more slowly in the speed limit, and indicates that Fed officials and investors than expected Shengxi fewer and longer intervals. The lower the neutral interest rate forecast, the more the Fed does not need to tighten policy anxiety, so that the Fed has repeatedly postponed the interest rate has justified reasons. As a result, as the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco governor Williams said, is the pace of interest rates may be the slowest in the United States ever. Coplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also said that interest rates will be much slower than in the past. The Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates this year, although it hinted in December last year, there will be four interest rate hike in 2016. Since then due to the slowdown in global economic growth, financial market volatility and low inflation in the United States, this year is expected to increase interest rates to two times, and is expected to raise interest rates in 2017 for the three time. But in view of the new view of the neutral rate, this expectation seems too optimistic. Fed policy makers say the aging of the U.S. population and productivity growth, damage and economic potential, so that they guard against excessive interest rates. "They are not far from tightening policy models," said Macro Insight, founder of New York Group, a former senior analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of (Shehriyar). This requires more patience, because the interest rate does not need to be adjusted to a huge pressure on inflation, the risk of falling behind the risk of inflation policy." * * although this week the Fed’s toolbox neutral rate estimates may be lowered, Fed chairman Yellen will stick to their point of view, namely the so-called toolbox of fed growth continued lower than expected domestic economy is still appropriate. The Fed’s kit includes more than $4 trillion in public debt and mortgage backed up by 3相关的主题文章: